You want to select a probability distribution for your Strategic Modeling simul-ation.

In Oracle Planning 2024’s Strategic Modeling simulations, selecting a probability distribution for scenarios with fixed minimum and maximum values and a known most likely value (e.g., sales estimates, inventory, marketing costs) points to:

A. Beta PERT: Incorrect. Beta PERT uses min, max, and most likely values but requires more data to shape the curve accurately, making it less ideal with limited data.

B. Uniform: Incorrect. Uniform assumes equal probability between min and max, ignoring the most likely value, which doesn’t fit this scenario.

C. Triangular: Correct. The Triangular distribution uses minimum, maximum, and most likely values, making it simple and effective for limited data situations like sales or costs.

D. Normal: Incorrect. Normal requires mean and standard deviation, not just min, max, and most likely, and assumes more data availability.

E. Lognormal: Incorrect. Lognormal is skewed and suited for data with a positive range, requiring more statistical input than provided here.

The Oracle documentation recommends the Triangular distribution for its simplicity and suitability with limited data, making C the correct answer.