In Agile and Adaptive environments, Velocity is the measure of the amount of work a team can tackle during a single sprint and is the primary metric used for long-term planning.
Why Choice C is correct:
Stabilization: Velocity often fluctuates due to external factors like holidays, sick leave, or planned vacations (as seen in this scenario). Using a single outlier—like a sprint where two people were missing—would result in a pessimistic and inaccurate forecast.
Historical Averaging: The Agile Practice Guide recommends using an average of past performance (typically the last 3 to 5 sprints) to smooth out anomalies. This " Average Velocity " provides a more stable and realistic predictor of what the team can achieve in a normal capacity.
Forecasting: To answer the sponsor ' s question about " how many more sprints, " the project manager would take the remaining points in the Product Backlog and divide them by this average velocity.
Analysis of other options:
A (Use the velocity of the last sprint): This is incorrect because the last sprint was an anomaly. Two team members were on vacation, making that velocity significantly lower than the team ' s actual capacity. Predicting the entire project ' s future based on a temporary staffing shortage would lead to an unnecessarily long and inaccurate timeline.
B (Add a 30% buffer): While buffers are used in traditional project management for risk, Agile relies on empirical data. Arbitrarily adding a percentage (like 30%) is " guesswork " and does not reflect the team’s demonstrated historical performance.
D (Change the adaptive tool): The problem is not the tool; it is the data being used. Changing software (like Jira or ADO) will not change the fact that people were on vacation. Velocity is a human metric, not a software problem.
Key Concept: The Project Management Institute (PMI) emphasizes Empirical Process Control. Velocity is a tool for the team to measure its own capacity. By calculating the average (Choice C), the project manager accounts for both high-productivity and low-productivity periods, providing the sponsor with a forecast based on the team ' s " true " long-term cadence rather than a temporary dip.
