According to the PMBOK® Guide (6th Edition), the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process is the process of numerically analyzing the combined effect of identified individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty on overall project objectives.
Because this process focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical data, it uses specific graphical tools to represent uncertainty and sensitivity:
Tornado Diagrams: These are a special type of bar chart used in sensitivity analysis. They show the relative sensitivity of individual project risks by displaying which risks have the most significant potential impact (positive or negative) on project outcomes. The diagram is arranged with the highest impact risks at the top, giving it a funnel or " tornado " shape.
Influence Diagrams: These are graphical representations of situations showing causal influences, time ordering of events, and other relationships among variables and outcomes. They are used to model the dependencies within a risk simulation.
Analysis of Distractors:
B (Detectability bubble charts and probability and impact matrix): These are primary tools for Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis. Qualitative analysis focuses on subjective categorization and prioritization, whereas Quantitative analysis focuses on numerical values and statistical modeling.
C (Hierarchical charts and burndown charts): Hierarchical charts (like a Risk Breakdown Structure) are used in Risk Management Planning. Burndown charts are a tool used in Control Schedule or Monitor and Control Project Work, specifically in Agile environments to track remaining work.
D (Flow charts and RACI charts): Flow charts are used in Plan Quality Management to visualize process steps. RACI charts are a type of Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM) used in Plan Resource Management to define team roles.
Key Document Reference: Section 11.4.2.5 of the PMBOK® Guide identifies sensitivity analysis (Tornado diagrams) and uncertainty representation (Influence diagrams) as core techniques for providing a quantitative assessment of project risk.
