An ML model is deployed in production.

A sudden drop in model performance after a long period of stability is a classic indicator of data drift. According to AWS ML documentation, production data distribution drift occurs when the statistical properties of incoming data change over time compared to the training dataset.

This drift can be caused by changes in user behavior, market conditions, seasonal trends, or upstream data pipelines. When drift occurs, the model’s learned patterns no longer align with real-world data, leading to degraded accuracy and other performance metrics.

Lack of training data (Option A) and overfitting (Option D) are issues that typically manifest during initial training, not after months of stable production performance. Compute constraints (Option C) may affect latency but do not usually cause sustained accuracy degradation.

AWS recommends using SageMaker Model Monitor to detect such drift and trigger retraining workflows.

Therefore, drift in the production data distribution is the most likely cause of the observed performance degradation.